To break the monotony of a long traffic jam in Delhi last week, the driver of my cab began talking about the political ramifications of the Indian Army's surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LOC) in Jammu and Kashmir. He described himself as someone who had never voted for any party but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and said that the heightened tensions between India and Pakistan were all about politics.
When I asked him whether he was for a war with Pakistan, the cab driver laughed and said it was too early for war as we were still more than two years away from the national elections. The surgical strikes were just a stopgap image booster for the BJP, halfway through its tenure, he added.
His observations carry a lot of weight in light of the BJP's unabashed politicisation of the army's action against terror bases across the LOC on 29 September. In the week following, posters thanking Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the action appeared in Lucknow, Varanasi, Agra and Muzaffarnagar. Now, BJP President Amit Shah has openly declared that the strikes will be a big part of the party's election campaign for the 2017 state polls.
It would appear that, instead of relying on its routine menu of communalism in UP, the BJP is rolling out communalism in the garb of nationalism. The jargon may differ but anti-Muslim sentiments lie at the heart of both. To put it plainly, Pakistan is a euphemism for the Muslim.
One recent example of the BJP's communal card was the effusive display of support by Union Minister Mahesh Sharma and BJP MP Sangeet Som for one of the accused in the lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq who died in police custody.
On Tuesday, Modi will kick off BJP's UP election campaign by attending the Dussehra celebrations at Lucknow's Aishbagh Ramlila ground, where he will shoot a symbolic arrow at Ravana's effigy. The act will echo the posters in UP that feature Modi as Lord Rama, wielding a bow and arrow, and shooting at Ravana whose ten heads are conveniently represented by the face of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan.
At first glance, the Indian army's cross-LOC action might look like the perfect thing for the BJP to capitalise on in the upcoming UP Assembly polls. But there could be limits to how much jingoistic nationalism will appeal to the state's voting populace. The voter's priorities usually tend to differ in a national and a state election. The 1999 Kargil War against Pakistan did not give the BJP any distinct edge in the UP polls, even though Atal Bihari Vajpayee, almost universally respected and admired in UP, was at the helm of affairs.
"It failed," recalled Ashutosh Misra, professor of political science in Lucknow University. "Even with someone like Vajpayee, a U.P. Brahmin with close link to the masses of UP. It still failed."
But with the BJP's UP election campaign turning out to be a damp squib so far, the party might draw on the age-old idiom -- if at first you don't succeed, try and try again. The party neither has a face nor an issue to peg its poll campaign on at the moment. While its minions continue to keep communal tensions alive in the hinterlands, the prime minister's party cannot afford to go too far on that front. This could make nationalism just what the doctor ordered for the BJP.
"Nationalism is a surrogate for communalism," Misra said. "It is a better, civil and more deceptive way to polarise society."
Even as the hunt for a local face in UP continues, surgical strikes allow the BJP to portray Modi as the country's guardian, and gives the party a talking point that transcends caste among Hindu voters, just like the development card in the 2014 national elections.
The BJP tried to own the development issue in the initial phases of the campaign but seems to have quickly realized that it had competition. Despite a late start and constant admonishment by his family, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has managed to position himself as a pro-development face in the state. The Congress Party meanwhile is making a play for UP's farmers.
It quickly becomes obvious to even a casual observer that the defence of the realm is not the most appealing issue on which to run a state election. But, unlike in the time of Vajpayee, nationalism is no longer just about national security. In its current iteration, nationalism is a tool to crush dissent, cast Indian Muslims as the 'Other' and label political opponents as anti-national.
While Sharif was depicted as Ravana in the UP posters, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was featured as Meghnad, his son. In a clear contrast, following a complaint by then Army Chief General V.P. Malik about BJP using the 1999 Kargil victory in election posters, Vajpayee ensured that it would not happen again.
Writing in the Business Standard, Ajai Shukla pointed out that this time around, after the surgical strikes, the army has not yet asserted its desire to be apolitical. Meanwhile, Congress Party Vice President Rahul Gandhi's attempt to shame the BJP with his "Khoon Ka Dalaali" remark backfired, and the Samajwadi Party (SP) has put up a poster that credits SP Supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav with advising Modi on the surgical strikes.
It remains to be seen whether the Shah-Modi duo will be able to pull off nationalism as an election strategy, but at the very least, it has revitalised the BJP's local cadres in UP.
For his part, Modi has exhibited extraordinary restraint in the aftermath of the army's action, even having advised his ministers to avoid "chest thumping." It remains to be seen if he will continue to exercise restraint or succumb to the lure of nationalism while speaking at the Ramlila ground.
The occasion couldn't be more ripe for a "good versus evil" talk.
But any attempt to over-leverage the surgical strikes could backfire, warned A.K. Verma, professor of political science at the Christ Church College in Kanpur. Verma believes that the strikes do lend a "natural advantage" to the BJP, but only if they avoid jingoistic nationalist rhetoric and tasteless posters. "Voters are sensitive to this and it could be a turn off," he cautioned.